Theauthorisanop-edcontributortoBeijingReviewandDirectoroftheLauChinaInstituteatKing鈥檚College,LondonTheBeltandRoadInitiativehasbeenwithusforfiveyearsnow.ItfirstmanifesteditselfasthenewSilkRoadin2013whenChinesePresidentXiJinpingwastravelingfirstinCentralAsiaandtheninIndonesia.Since2015,ithasbeenknownastheBeltandRoadInitiative.UnderthatnameithasbeenthefocusofmajorconferencesandsummitsinChina,aswellasacrosstherestoftheworld,includingmanycountriesandregionsthatwerenotoriginallyassociatedwiththeidea.Everyone,itseems,wantstoknowabouttheBeltandRoadInitiativeandtoworkoutwhatitmeansforthem.
Afairerrole
ThepracticalimpactoftheBeltandRoadInitiativehastakenplaceintwoprimarydomains.Thefirstisthatofactualrealizedprojects,suchastheconstructionofinfrastructureandworkingindevelopmentschemeswithvariousinternationalpartners.Therationalehereisthatafterfourdecadesofrapidindustrializationandconstruction,Chinaisinapositionthanbeforetoshowothershowtoundertakeurbanizationandbuildhighspeedrailwaysandmotorways,amongotherthings.China,asapartytotheexchangeofknowledge,hasusuallybeenfiguredinwayswhichplaceitasastudent,andtheoutsideworld鈥擡urope,Americaandthedevelopedworldinparticular鈥攁sitsteachers.Nowthissituationhaschanged.Noothercountryhasliftedsomanyfrompovertyandbuiltsomuchhardinfrastructureinsuchashortperiodoftime.Itisnow,therefore,theeraofChinatheteacher,notChinathestudent.TheBeltandRoadInitiativeisonewaythatthisisunfolding.
Thereisalsothesimplematterofmutualself-interest.Chinawishestodiversifyandexpanditsoverseasmarkets.Itlearnedfromthefinancialcrisisof2008thatover-relianceononeareaforexportsisavulnerability.Sincethenithassoughttoexpandthefocusofitstradingrelationswithinitsownregion.Someofthesehavebeenstymiedinthepastbythelackofproperlogisticalandinfrastructuralsupportforsupplychains.SoChina,throughBeltandRoadInitiativeprojects,ishelpingtoputtheseinplace,andtomeetthevastunmetneedsoftheAsiaregionintermsofroads,railways,portsandotherassets.Inthisway,thefamous鈥渨in-win鈥漮fChinesediscoursebecomesclear鈥擟hinagetsabetterqualitymarkettosellintoandsourcegoodsfrom,andthepartnersintheregiongetphysicalinfrastructurethathelpsthembuildtheirowneconomies.That,atleast,isthemostidealoutcome.
TheseconddimensionoftheBeltandRoadInitiativeismoreabstract.Thisisthewaysinwhich,notjustfortheregion,butthewiderworld,ithasservedasthekeyideaforintroducingideasaboutwhyitisworthengagingwiththeChineseeconomy,andhowbesttodoso.AcriticismmadeofChinaafteritsaccessiontotheWorldTradeOrganizationin2001wasthatasitseconomyboomedanditgrewinstatureandimportance,diplomaticallythecountryseemedtolackavoice.In2005,thenU.S.traderepresentativeRobertZoellickcomplainedthatChinawasnotastakeholderintheglobalorder,andthatitneededtostepforwardandplayagreaterrole.Frustratingly,thereweretimeswhenChinadidpreciselythisandreceivedcomplaintsandcriticisms.Thiscatch-22situation鈥攁countrywhichevidentlyneededafarhigherprofileandglobalrole,andanoutsideworldwillingtoseeittakethatroleonlyifwhollyonitsownterms鈥攈asbeenpartiallyresolvedbytheBeltandRoadInitiative.TheBeltandRoadInitiative,inessence,hasstartedahugedebateaboutwhatalarger,fairerroleforChina,withitsuniqueeconomicandpoliticalmodel,actuallymeansforeveryoneelse.
Thatwasnevergoingtobeaneasyprocesstoengagewith.Afterall,theriseofotherpowerstogreaterprominenceinthepasthasoftencausedturbulence.ThisissomethingthatplentyinsideandoutsideChinahavenoted.Butthereisonethingworsethanenduringthediscomfortofsometimestalkingaboutthesedifficultissues,andthatisnotengagingwiththemandpretendingthat,withoututteringaword,theywillautomaticallysortthemselvesout.TheBeltandRoadInitiativeispartofamajorinternationalcommunicationprocess,whereeveryonetakespartinworkingoutwhataneworderlookslikewhenChinahasaposition,statusandrolethatismuchmorecommensuratewiththesizeofitseconomyandgeopoliticalinfluence.Atleastnowmorepeoplearefocusingonthisthaneverbefore,andtryingtoworkthroughtheseissuescollaborativelyandcreatively.
Anewconsensus
AfterfiveyearsoftheBeltandRoadInitiativeconcept,wecannowdrawsomeprovisionalconclusions.Thefirst,veryobviousone,isthatuptakeforBeltandRoadconferencesinEurope,LatinAmerica,andelsewhereshowsthatthewiderworlddoeswanttothinkmoreabouttheroleofChinaintheirlives.Thecommunityofthosethatfeeltheyhavelinkswiththecountryandneedaconceptualframeworktohelpthemfindtherightwaystocooperate,workwith,andthinkaboutChinaisincreasing.Whateverpeoplemightbelieve,whetheritisnegative,positiveorneutral,atleasttheyfeelthattheynowneedtodevotetimetotheissue.ComplacentindifferencetowardwhatChinaisdoingisnolongeranoption.That,broadly,isagoodthing.
Secondly,theBeltandRoadInitiativeshowsthecomplexityofChineseinfluenceandpower,andthewaysinwhichthishasbeeninterpretedbydifferentaudiencesinvastlydifferentways.Forsome,theBeltandRoadInitiativeboilsdowntosimplycreatinggreaterconnectivityintermsofhardinfrastructure,theInternet,people-topeoplelinksandgovernance.Forothers,itisaboutintroducingaChinesephilosophy,involvingideaslikeharmony,reciprocityandmulti-polarity鈥攁newsetofgeopoliticalconceptsharvestedfromtherichhistoryofChinesestrategicthinkingthatreachesbackmillenniaintothepast.Thiscouldbeanalmostidealisticinterpretation.
Forafew,theBeltandRoadInitiativeismoreaboutChinafindingitsrightfulglobalroleinwayswhichplaytoitsstrengths鈥攖hrougheconomicprowessandperformance鈥攔atherthanintheareaswhereitmightcomeintodirectconflictwithaUnitedStatesincreasinglywaryandjealousofeventheslightestperceptionthatitislosingitsglobalnumberonespot.Thismightbecalledthe鈥済randstrategy鈥漚pproach.
Allofthesedifferentaspectshighlightonething;thatreachingconsensusonwhatChinaanditsnewandincreasinglyglobalrolemeanforthelivesofeveryoneelseisperhapsthemosturgentgeopoliticaldiscussiontakingplaceatthemoment,andonethatcannotfail.AmajormisunderstandingbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStates,Europe,oranywhereelse,wouldbeinnoone鈥檚interests.Itwouldbethedirectoppositeof鈥渨in-win.鈥滶verythinghastobedone,therefore,toforestallthiseventuality.
DiscussionabouttheBeltandRoadInitiativehascreatedmultiplediscoursesandcompetingattitudesandconvictions.Someoftheseconversationshaveproveddifficult,suchasargumentsaboutimbalanceanddebtincreasingforsomeofitspartners.Expectationshavesometimesgonetoofarahead.Itis,afterall,earlydays.ButthewholeBeltandRoadconcepthasatleastbeguntohelpChinaunderstandwhatitwantsfromtheworldaroundit,andwhatitthinkstheoptimalrelationshipwiththatworldmightbe.IthasalsopromptedanincreasingnumberofpeopleinthewiderworldtoworkouthowandwhytheymightwanttoworkwithChina.AfamousChinesesayingusedintheearlyyearsofthePeople鈥檚Republictalksofajourneyofathousandmilesstartingwithasinglestep.TheBeltandRoadInitiativeisthesinglestepinthegreatjourneyofChinaachievingaglobalrolethatneedstobebalanced,sustainableandtrulycollaborative.Thatisnotaneasygoal,butitisonewortheveryonestrivingfor.
XINHUAAnaerialviewoftheChina-EgypteconomiccooperationzoneundertakenviathecooperationframeworkoftheBeltandRoadInitiativeinAinSokhna,Egypt,onJune17CopyeditedbyLaurenceCoulton
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