JamesOkuk,ComparativePoliticsLecturer,JubaUniversity
SouthSudanconflictcontinuesasUN-mandatedtroopspreparetoplayamoreassertiverole
ByAggreyMutambo
TheAugustannouncementbytheUNSecurityCouncilauthorizinganadditionalinterventionforceof4,000troopstoSouthSudanhasgivensomehopetothewar-torncountry.Themandateofthisforcetoprotectciviliansandhelpbolsterthetenuouspeaceprocess,despitepracticaldeploymentchallenges,willbetestedinthemonthsahead.
WhenrebelleaderRiekMacharacceptedtheinvitationtoJubainAprilandformedthebrokeredTransitionalGovernmentofNationalUnitywithPresidentSalvaKiir,itlookedlikeasecondliberationandthestartofalongroadtostabilityforSouthSudan.
Itprovedtobeafalsedawn,however,asviolenceeruptedagainintheembattlednationbeginningonJuly8,withtroopsloyaltoKiirfightingthoseofMachar.Eventsmovedwithlightningspeedastheviolenceescalated,killingcloseto300people.Fearsofacivilwarloomedagain,andMacharfledJuba.
SouthSudan’scivilwardatesbacktoDecember2013afterKiiraccusedMacharofplottingacoup,butaccordingtotherecentUNreportsofkillingandrapingofciviliansbygovernmenttroops,thecountry’sfragilesituationhasplungedtoanall-timelow.SouthSudanhasrejectedtheUNaccusations.
Viciouscycle
Fromtheoutside,theconflictlookslikeaviciousinternalcycle,asbothsidesaccuseeachotherofviolatingtheCompromiseAgreementontheResolutionoftheConflictintheRepublicofSouthSudansignedinAugust2015,whichdemandsatotalceasefire.
ButtheongoingviolenceisbeingfeltbeyondSouthSudaneseborders.
TheUNRefugeeAgencyreportedinAugustthatsincethelatestroundoffighting,thenumberofrefugeeswhofledfromSouthSudanintoneighboringcountriestotaled60,000,bringingtheoverallnumberofrefugeesintheregionsinceDecember2013tonearly900,000.
Chinaisalsoaffectedbytheconflict,havingrecentlylosttwoofitspeacekeepersinthecountrywhentheirbasewasattackedinJuly.ChinamaintainsapresenceintheUNpeacekeepingforceinSouthSudan.
SpeakingaboutthelatestdevelopmentsinSouthSudanduringhisvisittoNairobiinAugust,ChineseForeignMinisterWangYisaid,“WebelievethatpeopleofAfricahaveallthewisdomandcapabilitytosolvetheirissues,”addingthatChina’srolewillbetocontinueparticipatinginthepeacefulsettlementofregionalissues,eveninamoreactiveway.
ThehopeofthispeacefulsettlementanditssubsequentprocessinSouthSudanwasmidwifedbyaregionalblocknownastheIntergovernmentalAuthorityonDevelopment(IGAD).ItsExecutiveSecretaryMahboubMaalimrecentlyspokeofa“newstrategy”tobringlastingpeaceinJuba,thenation’scapital.
“Wehavetoldbothsidesthatfightinghastostop.Thatistheimmediatedemand,butwemaygofortargetedsanctionstoenforceit,”hesaidinNairobiinAugust.“AtIGADwehavebeenclear.ThatiswhywehaveaskedtheUNtofortifythepeacekeepingforcessotheycanprovidesecuritytocivilians.Securityisthefirstthingwemustallstrivetoget.Therestwillfallinplace.”
IGADiswaryofrecentfightingbecauseitoversawsevenpreviousceasefiresbetweenDecember2013andAugust2015,allofwhichwerebrokenwithindays.
Permanentceasefire
Aspartofthepeaceprocess,IGADalsoformedtheJointMonitoringandEvaluationCommission(JMEC),composedofpartiestotheagreement,IGAD,theUN,andotherinternationalpartnerssuchasChina,theUnitedStates,theUnitedKingdomandNorway.
JMECischairedbyformerBotswanaPresidentFestusMogaeanditsroleistomonitorviolationsandreportthemtotheAfricanUnionandUN.
“Thelackofpoliticalwillandgoodleadershipfromtheprincipalstoimplementthespiritandletteroftheagreementisthegreatestweaknessthatneedstobeaddressed,”saidDr.JamesOkuk,aSouthSudanesescholarwhoteachesComparativePoliticsatJubaUniversity.
SouthSudaneserefugeeshavetheirinformationregistered
SouthSudaneserefugeeswaittogetwater“TheJMECneedstostartpracticingits10powersinChapterVIIofthepeaceagreementmoreassertively.ChapterIIonPermanentCeasefireandSecurityArrangementsneedtobeprioritizedandreinforcedfully,”hesaidreferringtotheprovisiononmonitoringtheimplementationoftheagreementrequiringallarmedgroupstorelocatetroopsoutofJubaandceasefighting.
ViolenteventsinJulyforcedIGADtorecommendchangingthemandateofthe14,000UNpeacekeepingforcesalreadyinSouthSudansotheycanhavethepowertoprotectcivilians,overandabovetheirpeacekeepingrole.ThemandatechangewasendorsedbytheAUandawaitsapprovalfromtheUNSecurityCouncil.
The4,000additionaltroopsmandatedbytheUNinAugustwillbeknownastheProtectionForceBrigadeandwillbedrawnmostlyfromneighboringcountries,somethingregionalleadershadarguedwasmissing.However,SouthSudansaiditwouldonlyacceptsuchtroopsiftheywereindependentandnotunderUNcommand,promptingtheUNtoconsiderimposinganembargoifdeploymentisobstructed.
Buildingtrust
Throughouttheongoingconflictandpeaceprocess,IGADhasstruggledtobuildtrustamongthepartiesinvolved.AtasessioninNairobiinJuly,theblocsaiditwillworkwithSouthSudanonlyasoneentity.
“WeareonlyengagingwithSouthSudanasonegovernmentcomposedofpartiestotheconflict.Itisimportantthatweremindspoilersoftheneedtosupportpeace,”saidMaalim.Thepartieshespokeaboutincludedpoliticalparties,religiousgroupsandarmedgroups,whichMaalimsaidmustbepartofthepeaceprocessforittoendure.
Thenecessityofbeinginclusiveandtakingown-ershipwasechoedbyOliverMichael,aconsultantwiththeInterchurchOrganizationforDevelopmentCooperation,areliefagencythatworksinSouthSudan.“ThefightinginSouthSudanhasbeenbetweenSouthSudanesepeople.Theymustbethefirstpeopletounderstandtheyneedpeaceevenwithoutanyexternalpressure,”hesaid.
“Theymustacceptthattheyneedoneanotherinonecountry,acceptresponsibilityandallowoutsiderstoonlysupporttheirvisionforapeacefulcountry,”saidMichael.
Implementingagreement
ThescopeofthedevastationinSouthSudanisoverwhelming.TheUNOfficefortheCoordinationofHumanitarianAffairssaidupto5.1millionpeopleinthecountryneedhumanitarianassistance.Butonlyhalfofthemcouldbeaccessedpartlybecauseofsecurityconcerns.
WhenviolencebrokeoutinJuly,someexpertshadpredictedthepeaceagreementwasfaultyandwouldnotlast.StevePaterno,authorandresearcherontheSouthSudanconflict,toldChinAfricathepeacedealhadbeenmade“impractical”bysignatories.
“Thetransitionalgovernmentwasmeanttobeatemporarymeasure.ButIamafraidsomegroupsmaysplinteriftheyfeellockedout,”hewarned.
Butdespitethechallenges,MacharandKiirhaveatleastagreedonthenumberofadvisorseachshouldhaveinthegovernment,aninitiallycontentiousissue.
“Sometimespeoplemaywanttodothingsattheirownpace.Oncetheceasefireisguaranteed,thepoliticalsystemshouldbereformedbytheSouthSudanesethemselves,”saidProfessorMachariaMunene,acommentatoronregionalaffairsbasedinKenya.CA