TheauthorisaresearchfellowwiththeCharharInstituteandtheSyriaResearchCenteratNorthwestUniversity,ChinaChina鈥檚Proposition
AtapressconferenceinJuly,ForeignMinistryspokeswomanHuaChunyingoutlinedChina鈥檚stanceontheIrannucleardeal.Anexcerptofhercommentsfollows:
Currently,theJCPOAisatacriticaljunctureaboutitsdirection.Weemphasizedinparticularthatinternationalrulesshouldbefollowedandmajorcountriesshouldhavecredibilityandassumetheirdueresponsibilities.Theunilateralsanctionsshouldbeabandonedbecausetheyarecounterproductive.Allrelevantpartiesshouldstaycommittedtodialogueandnegotiationandadoptaconstructiveattitudetodiscusstheissuesofcommonconcern.
UpholdingandimplementingtheJCPOAremainanarduoustask.TheChinesesidewillcontinuewithitseffortstoupholdtheoutcomeofmultilateralism.Chinawillbynomeansaccepttheunilateralsanctionswhicharegroundlessunderinternationallawandwewillresolutelysafeguardourownlegitimaterightsandinterests.
(Source:MinistryofForeignAffairs)
AsWashington鈥檚deadlineforthewithdrawalofforeigninvestmentfromIranapproaches,U.S.PresidentDonaldTrumplookssettoreimposepunitivesanctionsonbothIranandforeigncompanieswhichcontinuetodobusinessintheIranianmarket.Aseriesofchallenges,bothinternalandexternal,maydestabilizeIran.
Trump鈥檚plan
TheIrannucleardealwasanimportantfoundationinthesettlementoftheIrannuclearissue.OnJuly14,2015,theP5+1,madeupofChina,France,theUnitedStates,Russia,theUKandGermany,alongwiththeEuropeanUnion(EU),reachedtheJointComprehensivePlanofAction(JCPOA)withIrantoensurethatitsnuclearprogramwouldbestrictlynon-militaryinnature.Butlessthantwoyearslater,inMay2018,TrumpdeclaredWashington鈥檚intenttowithdrawfromthedeal,withhostilitybetweenIranandtheUnitedStatesescalatingeversince.
AccordingtoTrump,theJCPOAisflawedinseveralwaysandneedsreworking.Firstly,thedealislargelytemporary,andmostoftherestrictionsitimposesonIran鈥檚nuclearresearchanddevelopmentactivitieswillexpirein2030.TrumpthereforethinksitisnecessarytoestablishanewsetofrulestopermanentlyremovethepossibilityofIran鈥檚futuredevelopmentofnuclearweapons.Secondly,thedealdoesnot,accordingtoTrump,doenoughtorestrictIran鈥檚ambitionofdevelopingitsownmissileprogramandexpandingitsinfluencewithintheMiddleEast.Sincethedealwassignedin2015,IranhastestedvariousmissileswhileitsIslamicRevolutionaryGuardshavebeeninvolvedinconflictsinYemenandSyria.
Trump鈥檚decisiontowithdrawfromtheJCPOAisaseriousblowtothevaluesoftheinternationalcommunityandthepoliticalreputationofIranianPresidentHassanRouhani.FortheRouhaniadministration,whichassumedpowerin2014,thenucleardealwasanimportantopportunitytointegrateIranintotheinternationalcommunityfollowingdecadesofisolationunderU.S.sanctionsandgainwiderpublicsupportathome.ManyIraniansalsobelievedthatthedealmighthelpimproveIran鈥檚economy,whichdeterioratedduringthetenureofRouhani鈥檚predecessor,MahmoudAhmadinejad.
Limitedoptions
ForIran,Washington鈥檚withdrawaldealsasignificantsetbacktothecountry鈥檚economicprospectsandhascomeasadisappointmenttomanyIranians.Athome,theIranianGovernmenthasfacedaseriesofprotestsanddemonstrationssincetheendoflastyear.Theseprotestscameprimarilyasaresultofeconomichardship,withsomeprotestorscallingforanendtotheocraticrule,withdrawalfromSyriaandsuspensionofinvestmentandeconomicassistancetoIran鈥檚alliesintheMiddleEast,suchasSyria,HezbollahinLebanonandHamasinGaza.
TheseongoingchallengeshavealsopromptedashiftinIran鈥檚domesticpoliticallandscape.ManyconservativesandhardlinersinIranareblamingtheRouhaniadministrationfortheU.S.treacheryandarethreateningtoquittheJCPOAasacounterattacktoWashington鈥檚upcomingsanctions.FortheIranianopposition,Trump鈥檚withdrawalfromtheJCPOAmeansanimportantopportunitytoregaindomesticsupport,challengethecurrentgovernmentandpotentiallydemanditsresignation.
TherearetwomeasuresIrancouldtaketocounterU.S.sanctions.ItcouldthreatentorestartitsnuclearresearchanddevelopmentprogramsoastoforceWashingtonanditsalliesintheMiddleEasttoacceptitsdemandstoliftsanctions.IrancouldalsoaffectinternationaloilpricesbyincreasingitsoilexportssoastodisruptSaudiArabia鈥檚plantoalleviateitsownfinancialburdensbyincreasinginternationaloilprices.
Yeteventhesemovescouldultimatelyprovefutile.AnattemptbyIrantorestartitsnuclearfacilitiesmayprovoketheireofcountriesintheEU,especiallyFrance,GermanyandtheUK.AlthoughthesenationsdonotagreewithTrump鈥檚withdrawalandproposedsanctions,thisdoesnotnecessarilymeanthattheywouldmerelystandasidewhileIranrestartsitsnuclearfacilities.AnymovebyIrantoreinitiateitsnucleardevelopmentprogramwoulddistanceitfromtheEUandseriouslyaffecttheiralreadystraineddiplomaticrelations.
AnattempttoincreasetheproductionandexportofoilcouldbeblockedbyWashington鈥檚punitivemeasures.IranhasbeenlookingforwaystocontinueexportingoileversincetheTrumpadministrationthreatenedtoimposesanctionsonTehran鈥檚businesspartnersiftheyfailedtocuttheirimportsofIranianoiltozerobyNovember4,inanattempttofurtherisolateIranbothpoliticallyandeconomically.
Theonlysolution
UndergrowingpressurefromtheUnitedStates,manyEuropeanfirmsonceinterestedininvestinginIran鈥檚marketshavealreadybeguntowithdraw,whileIndia,thesecondbiggestbuyerofIranianoilafterChina,hastoldrefineriestopreparefora鈥渄rasticreduction鈥漮fIranianoilimportstoprotectitselffromWashington鈥檚sanctions.ItthereforelooksunlikelythatIranwillbeabletocounterattacktheUnitedStateseffectivelyintheshorttermthrougheconomicandfinancialmeans.
Trump鈥檚decisiontowithdrawfromtheJCPOAandreimposesanctionsagainstIrancouldbefollowedbynewproposalsforadealwithIran.ThisplanisnotunliketheTrumpadministration鈥檚strategywiththeDemocraticPeople鈥檚RepublicofKoreaandSyria,whichistoforcecompetitorstoacceptnewtermsthroughnegotiationsanddialoguefollowingaseriesofpenalties.Trump鈥檚tacticsonIranmightbetobringIranbacktothenegotiatingtabletoacceptnewtermsmorefavorabletoWashingtonaftermonthsofseveresanctions.
IthasbeenwidelyreportedthatduringtheUnitedNationsGeneralAssemblyinSeptember2017,TrumpproposedadirectmeetingwithRouhaniandtheIraniandelegationthroughFrenchdiplomats,butthisapproachwasignored.TrumpnowhopesthatharshermeasurescanforceIranintoacceptingnewterms.ThesenewconditionsmayincludenotonlythesuspensionofIran鈥檚nuclearambitions,butalsothecessationofitsinvolvementinSyria,LebanonandYemen,andtheterminationofitsmissileresearchanddevelopmentprogram.
YetthisapproachwasattemptedundertheadministrationofformerU.S.PresidentBarackObama.ThesanctionsdesignedjointlybytheUnitedStatesandEuropeinflictedeconomicdamagewhichforcedIrantosuspenditsnuclearprogramandsignthenucleardealin2015underthecountry鈥檚newmoderateRouhani.Suchaplanmightnotworkasecondtime.Rouhani鈥檚originalsigningoftheJCPOAwasmetwithmajorcriticismathome.Trump鈥檚withdrawalfromtheagreementincitedangeramongtheIranianpublic,notonlytowardWashington,buttowardRouhaniandthemoderateblocinthecountryaswell.ItwillbefarmoredifficultforanyIranianleadertodobusinesswiththeUnitedStatesagain,evenmoresofollowingtheeconomichardshipsahead.
Iran鈥檚maingoalaftertheU.S.withdrawalfromtheJCPOAistopreserveinternationalconsensusformaintainingthedealandtocontinuetoattractinvestmentfromEurope,RussiaandAsiainspiteofU.S.pressure.GiventhelimitedoptionsatIran鈥檚disposaltolaunchaneffectivecounterattackandU.S.unwillingnesstodirectlyconfrontIranonthebattlefield,theonlywayoutforthegovernmentsofbothcountriesistoreturntothenegotiatingtableandfindasolutionthateveryonecanagreeon.
RepresentativesofChina,Russia,France,theUK,Germany,theEUandIranvowtopreservethe2015IrannuclearagreementfollowingU.S.withdrawalataforeignministers鈥檓eetinginViennaonJuly6XINHUACopyeditedbyLaurenceCoultonCommentsto